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One from two last out as Tsitsipas came back from 2 sets down to defeat Nadal in 5 while Pegula lead by a set and double break point, and by a break in the decider, but couldn’t get over the line. It’s been an entertaining second half of the event with several big upsets and epic comebacks, most notably by Tsitsipas and Muchova, but who will make it through to the final? Join me as I analyze semi-final day 2 in Melbourne and offer my best value tennis picks and predictions for Sportsbook Review!
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Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Friday, February 19, 2021 – 03:30 AM EST at Melbourne Park
Click here for our real time tennis odds
Djokovic dismantled Karatsev in the first semi-final, and now we have what should be a much more competitive affair as Medvedev takes on Tsitispas. These two are still relatively new to this level of the tour but they have already developed a notable rivalry – there was also a funny after-match ‘disagreement’ when they first met in Miami 2018.
Medvedev leads the H2H 5-1, but none of the matches have been remotely comfortable. With both in great form this week, I would expect more of the same. All but one of their H2H matches has gone over the total games line, so I like the look of over 40.5 games at -108 (1.93) with BetOnline.
These two are both tall players at 6’ 6” and 6’ 4” with excellent serves and have held 89% and 91.2% over the last year on indoor and outdoor hard courts. As mentioned in my last article, Tsitsipas is superb for betting on long matches and once again he’s the main driving force for the over bet.
Tsitsipas is a player who does his best work on the front foot and often struggles to break down opponents’ defences. As a result, he is naturally more serve orientated which has historically lead to lots of long matches, especially against elite level opposition. When Tsitsipas has been priced at betting odds of +100 (2) to +200 (3) on indoor and outdoor hard, the over has lost in just 8 of 34 matches (24%). Against top 20 opposition in this price bracket, he has covered the over line in 8 of 11 matches.
Medvedev is less obviously good for this bet given his superior defensive capabilities and higher tennis IQ. On top of his natural power and strong serve, he is very difficult to hit through, which against weaker opposition, often leads to Medvedev being totally dominant.
He has looked excellent on the whole this week with one notable wobble against Krajinovic where he let go of a 2-0 set lead, but he went on to win 6-0 in the fifth. Other than that, he has comfortably won every match in straight sets. The Russian is a rightful favorite to my mind based on raw stats, immediate form, and the H2H advantage. The major worry for the bet is that he may simply be too good on the day.
However, his dominance against weaker opposition doesn’t tend to translate to dominance in these closer matches against top opposition. As mentioned, the H2H has seen the over land in all but 1 of 6 matches, and more broadly when priced up between -200 (1.5) and -101 (1.99) against the top 30, the over has lost in 2 of 7 in since 2020, one of which was a 6-2 7-6 7-6 loss to Thiem at the US Open, where Medvedev served for both sets 2 and 3.
After Tsitsipas came back from 2 sets down against Nadal, I imagine he feels fortunate and grateful to have made the semis and can swing freely in this match, knowing that his best route to victory is to try to be on the front foot as much as possible and really take the battle to Medvedev.
I am expecting a high quality match in the next episode of this rivalry and while I would expect Medvedev to come through, I’m not keen on his price of -220 (1.45). For anyone who can bet on 3-1 to Medvedev, I like that at a price of +275 (3.75) and over, but I can’t officially tip that so I’ll take a chance on over 40.5 games at -108 (1.93) with BetOnline.
Tennis Pick: Over 40.5 games at -108 (1.93) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.
Related Articles
- The Masters 2021 returns with Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy tipped to win the tournament on April 8 next year
- Johnson is the heavyfavorite with +800 on the moneyline tailed closely by McIlroy with +900
- Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas are all strong underdogs posted at (+1400)
For those of you who enjoy early markets, BetOnline already has published their predictions for the upcoming The Masters golf tournament in 2021. Scheduled for April 8 next year, the event will once again reunite quite the field of golfers, including Dustin Johnson, RoryMcIlroy, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, and quite a few talented athletes.
In fact, BetOnline has gone with over 50 distinct names from the world of golfing, all making a rather solid claim for the title next year. It’s all speculation for now, but the Masters 2021 will see Johnson and McIlroy vying for the top spot posted at (+800) and (+900) respectfully.
These predictions are based on the athletes’ performance so far in 2020, and with three months and many events on the golf calendar on the way to The Masters next year, a lot can change.
The Masters 2021 Odds to Win (December 11, 2020)
A Look at the Underdogs: Koepka, DeChambeau, Thomas
Betting on Johnson or McIlroy is self-evident, but there is a lot of potential when you consider the trio of runner-ups who are just as capable of delivering on an impressive performance.
Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas will all be tied for one of the first places, making speculations and predictions for the upcoming The Masters all the more exciting.
All we have to go on now is their performance in the 2021 PGA Season. All three players have remained somewhat hesitant in their performance, but still delivering exceptional performance.
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Bryson DeChambeau
As of December 11, DeChambeau has managed to secure one win and one top 10 finishes so in the 2021 PGA Season. This is not too bad, especially after winning the U.S. Open. His exact stat is:
- (9/17 – 9/20) U.S. Open – 1
- (10/8 – 10/11) Shriners Hospitals for Children – 8
- (11/12 – 11/15) 2020 Masters Tournament – 34
Yes, perhaps DeChambeau didn’t do so well in this year’s edition of the event, but his performance improved dramatically in the next two events, and he’s a worthwhile future bet.
Brooks Koepka
Koepka is another force in golfing to reckon with. His performance in the 2021 PGA Season has been great, although he did miss the cut in the Mayakoba Golf Classic. The next event to follow weren’t half bad:
- (10/15-10/18) The CJ Cup – 28
- (11/5 – 11/8) Vivint Houston Open – 5
- (11/12 – 11/15) 2020 Masters Tournament – 7
Justin Thomas
Thomas has been doing well, see-sawing between 2nd and 12th spot in the last five events he played as part of the 2021 PGA Season. The golfer has not been afraid to put in some mileage in, not shying away from a worthwhile challenge.
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His most notable performance of late is the near-miss he had at the ZOZO Championship, finishing 2nd. So far as his other performance goes, Thomas has been able to secure the following positions:
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- (9/17 – 9/20) U.S. Open – 7
- (10/15-10/18) The CJ Cup – 12
- (11/12 – 11/15) 2020 Masters Tournament – 4
- (12/3 – 12/6) Mayakoba Golf Classic – 12
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Thomas has played in every event as the other underdogs and has faced most of them. His results have been consistently good and he stands to be a powerful contender for the 2021 event, and definitely, a worthwhile future bet to place your money on.