Betting Total Points Football
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- Game total bet: Over/Under betting on how many goals/points/runs will be scored in a game. If a baseball game total is set at 7.5 runs, bettors need to decide if the combined total runs in that.
- A total or over/under bet is a single wager on whether or not the combined goal, point or run total of a single game will be over or under what the oddsmaker sets it at before the event. When placing a total wager, all the bettor is concerned with is the combined score of each team at the end of the game.
- Extra-time does not count towards the total. Only cards shown to players currently on the pitch will count. Cards shown to managers, players already substituted off or substitutes not yet used do not count towards the total. If your bet is on 10+ booking points your bet is a winner if there are 10 or more booking points.
Over Under Betting is the second most popular type of NFL betting, just behind spread betting. Over Under Betting is also known as “Game Total Betting” and you will often see it be referred to as either term. Beginner NFL bettors may be confused by Over Under Betting, but it is very easy to learn and understand once explained.
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In Over Under Betting the oddsmakers will set a number of points in which they think both teams will score in total throughout the whole game (including overtime if necessary). Bettors will then be able to bet on the total number of points scored by both teams combined to be over or under that set game total number. For example, the number may be set at 42.5 points. If you bet the “over” you would need a combined 43 or more points from both teams in order to win your bet (a 28-17 score would win you the bet). If you were to place your money on the “under” you would need both teams to combine for 42 or less points throughout the game (a 21-17 game would win you the under bet).
Example of NFL Over Under Bet
Below is an example of what an NFL Over Under line would look like:
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 37.5 (-110)
Under 37.5 (-110)
The number next to the Over and Under is always going to be the same, and represents the set game total. In this case the game total was set by the oddsmakers at 37.5. You would then have the choice to place your bet on both teams scoring more than 37.5 combined points (the Over) or less than 37.5 combined points (the Under). The (-110) beside each choice represents the betting odds, which I will explain more below.
If the final score ended up being Pittsburgh 21 Baltimore 14 we would have a total combined score of 35 points, and therefore the “under” bet would win.
Betting Total Points Football Game Today
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Other NFL Over Under Betting Information
Although the most common odds set for Over Under lines are -110 or 10% juice on either side it definitely isn’t always the case. The set game total number will always be changing in small increments before kickoff, but the odds will always slightly change before the game total does. Using our above example we might see the odds changed to “Over (-105) and Under (-115)” before we see the game total number adjusted to 37.
That brings me to my next point about NFL Over Under Betting – the game total doesn’t always have to be a decimal number. Although more often than not they are a decimal numbers, you will often see the game total being an even integer such as 39, 41, 44, etc. With an even number game total you may see the combined score end up exactly on the number. In that case the bets on both the Over and Under would be refunded. For example, if the game total was set at 41 and we had a final score of 24-17 it would be considered a “push” and all bets on either side of the number are refunded back to the bettors.
Some of the better online betting sites, such as 5Dimes, may even allow you to adjust the game total either way with the odds of course reflecting the change (known as alternate lines). For example, the game total was set at 41.5 and you thought the oddsmakers did a bad job and the game was going to be a lot higher scoring. In some sportsbooks you would be able to select an alternate game total of 44.5 for example and bet the over, which would payout a lot more than the over on the 41.5 line.
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NFL Strategy Articles:
We have a professional sports bettor writing strategy articles here at TheSportsGeek.com. Check them out on the sports betting strategy page of our website, and hopefully you will pick up some tips that will help you make some money betting on NFL totals.
Football over/unders are one of the simplest type of football bets you can make. A sportsbook takes a particular game and predicts what the total score of both teams will be. Then you, as a bettor, can now bet whether that score will be over or under the predicted number. If it is higher than the posted number, then ‘over’ wins. If it is lower than that predicted number, then ‘under’ wins.
Common Totals
Some of the most common total scores you will see in football are 37 and 41. In fact, these are the most common scores in the last 10 years in the National Football League (NFL). In a game where the total is 37, you will likely see a score of 20-17 or 27-10. In a game where the total is 41, you will likely see a score of 21-20. Of course, total scores could differ considerably from 37 and 41. Compared to baseball and soccer, football has a lot more points scored in a game and the totals could differ considerably. Thus, you can see a total score as high as 55 or as low as 24, although those totals are not very common.
* Please see illustration below to help understand over/under bets, text explanation follows.
Calculating Over/Under Bets
Let us say Baltimore Ravens are playing against Pittsburgh Steelers in the NFL. Our recommended online sportsbook predicts that the total score of the two teams will be 37 points in this game. The odds will look like this:
37.5 total score
Over (-125)
Under (+105)
In this case, if you are betting that the total score will be over 37, then you will need to bet $125 in order to win $100. The (-) sign shows that this is a likely outcome –a favorite outcome on this type of game or specific match-, so you have to pay more to win less. If you are betting that the total score will be 37 points or less, then you would only need to bet $100 to win $105. The (+) sign shows that this is a less likely outcome –the underdog in this situation-, so you actually get better odds here and have to pay less to win more.
A “Push” and a Concept Of ‘0.5’
The ‘0.5’ element is used so that you can have a possibility of betting that the score will be exactly 37 or lower. So, if ‘0.5’ is not used and the score ends up being 37 points, then a “push” happens – which is when nobody wins and a sportsbook has to return the bets. Sometimes though, you will see over/under bets without the half-point element.
Tips and Strategies to Help You Win
Generally speaking in football betting, totals are one the easiest markets to beat. This is because much like football prop wagers a lot additional factors are involved. You see almost every handicapper starts with a simple system that “uses points” for and “points allowed” weighed against league averages for both teams to come up with a number and then starts making adjustments. The adjustments are however heavily researched and also subjective. For example if you’re seeing the Patriots should beat the Rams by 13.5 points this might be a game where the total needs be inflated, if you also notices the Patriots rarely let up once having a lead, and tend to play a lot of prevent defense at the end of the game.
Other adjustments that can be made relate to weather; an important factor is wind. Strong wind can make it harder for players to run and score touchdowns. It will not make a job of defenders much harder though as they typically do not have to run as much, but it will for the quarterback’s throw If anything. Thus, strong winds might help to lower the total scores of the teams. On the other hand, snow and rain will not affect the score as much. It might slow down offensive players, but it will also affect defensive players. Both types of players can slip and make mistakes in those weather conditions. Thus, it will not be as predictable when it comes to rain and snow.
Really the best at handicapping totals are the bettors who best get inside the coach’s heads and understand tendencies. John Fox and Jeff Fisher coached teams are not going to score as many points as a favorite as other teams will, due to their much more conservative and by the book approach. These are coaches that would much rather attempt to pin an opponent deep than attempt a long field goal and risk field position should they miss. Also they’re much more likely to take the 3 points in a close game than to go for it on a high probability 4th and an inch from the 15. I could go on and on and on some more about this topic but by now I’m sure you’re getting my point. Much deeper analysis is needed than simple math.
How To Bet Total Points
Best Way to Beat Football Totals
Betting Total Points Football Game
Perhaps the best way to beat football totals is to realize for reasons covered in my article on Fade the Public, the betting markets at PinnacleSports.com (No US Players) are pretty close to efficient. From here what you should know is that a lot of amateur bettors tend to bet on the ‘over’. They typically expect and hope for an interesting game with a lot of points. As a result, even though betting markets are efficient, you’ll find US friendly recreational sportsbooks such as www.bovada.lv often shading the line such a way that the under becomes the much better bet.
Betting Total Points Football
Finally, perhaps the best way to profit from totals is to use them in correlated parlays. Please understand though, in all but rare cases totals should not be used in football teasers. However, as you can read about in my article on parlays there are times where parlaying a total with a spread make absolutely great sense.
Betting Total Points Football Game
Author & Professional: Jim Griffin